It may well be that we are content to pay current levels of tax, after two decades of reductions, but the idea that most are ready to pay more is completely wide of the mark.
Sure, it may be true that opinion poll and focus group evidence occasionally suggests that some of us are prepared to pay “a bit more” but what happens when they visit the polling station still suggests otherwise. Just look what happened in Bristol recently when council taxpayers were presented with a referendum on the options of increasing service provision or reducing the council tax. I refuse to believe that the voters of Bristol are anything other than typical of the rest of the country. They opted for the latter with the consequences that services are having to be cut. By all means ask the voters what they want in opinion polls, but never pose them such a question at the ballot box.

They will never vote for tax rises.Take a look at the section that deals with environmental issues in this week’s publication of the annual survey of British Social Attitudes. We were all told, a decade ago, that protecting the environment was the flavour of the month. But after high-profile issues such as genetically modified food, BSE in cattle and the transport crisis created by problems on the railways, people are less willing than ever to pay higher prices. According to the survey the number of people prepared to pay higher prices has fallen from 46 per cent in 1993 to 43 per cent today.

Those willing to pay “much higher taxes” has fallen from 37 per cent to 31 per cent.It is true that the public may be willing to reject tax cuts (as they did when they rejected the Tories’ offer of £8bn) But tax rises are quite another matter. Mr Howard was simply shaking the previous Hague-Portillo regime’s mud from his boots. Everyone could see the lack of logic in a policy of cutting tax while claiming to support increases in public expenditure. And Mr Howard may well be right that tax cuts are, today, off the public’s agenda. But by the time of the next election he should reserve his position and be prepared to address the fact that the public simply will not wear tax rises.At the recent general election even Mr Blair and Mr Brown went out of their way, in the Labour manifesto, to re-state that there were no plans to increase the basic or top rate of tax. Any hint that they might have been contemplating increasing National Insurance contributions was met with resistance and denial – even though it may have been in their mind. But all these promises look dangerously compromised by this week’s announcement.

Estimates of the cost of Mr Brown’s proposals range from the equivalent of 5p to 13p on the standard rate. And the options of sneaky stealth taxes bring their own political whirlwinds – as we saw during the protests against fuel tax.Of course, it is quite possible that Mr Brown may be exaggerating the implications of his pre-Budget report. Chancellors are sometimes adept at creating the impression that the pain of their decisions will be worse than the actual outcome. It is entirely possible that he does not actually intend to give as much to the health service as he seems to be implying. But on this occasion I doubt it and I do not think he is playing games.